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NFL

Total Quarterback Value (QBV) through Week 15

 What is QBV?
A: A brand new statistic which accurately measures the overall ability, contribution, and value of NFL quarterbacks. We use nothing but real statistics. Complete objectivity – no subjectivity. Solid data – zero conjecture. It could dramatically change for the better the way we evaluate the position. It makes the intangibles tangible, and it quantifies a signal caller’s value in a way that hasn’t been applied until now. The QBV believes there is a direct correlation between a QB’s ratio of positive/negative plays and wins/losses. The reverse is also true. Quarterbacks that throw significantly more touchdown passes than commit turnovers win in the NFL. Leaders who can place a check by the previous sentence win even more.

What is your formula?
A: We believe in simplicity. The quarterback position in the NFL is the most over-analyzed position in sports. Every prospect coming out of college and every current pro comes equipped with a scouting report hundreds of pages long. Scouts pour over every single, nitty-gritty detail. But what if there was an evaluation tool so simple which focused solely on what matters? What if this statistic could inform you clearly and concisely whether you can expect to win with that player behind center? It’s as easy as this:

( (Wins + Touchdown Passes) divided by (Losses + Total Turnovers (INT’s+lost fumbles) )   X  10

The number provided us by the formula in parenthesis represents a ratio. For example, Drew Brees in 2011 has three wins/TD passes for every one loss/turnover. Multiplying 3 X 10 provides us with Drew Brees’ current 2011 QBV of 30.0.

We call our QBV metric the most accurate way to measure the overall value of NFL quarterbacks. Read the FAQs for more info.

QBV – Through Week 16 – (last week’s rank in parenthesis)

1. Aaron Rodgers – 75.7 (1)

2. Drew Brees – 32.0  (2)

3. Tom Brady – 28.75 (4)

4. Alex Smith – 27.0 (5)

5. Tim Tebow – 22.50 (3)

6. Matt Schaub – 22.0 (6) TJ Yates 8.30

7. Tony Romo – 21.8 (7)

8. Matt Stafford – 21.0 (
——————————————Pro Bowl Candidate – 20.0 and up
9. Matt Stafford – 19.5

10. Ben Roethlisberger – 18.2

11. Matt Ryan – 15.5

12. Jay Cutler – 15.4

13. Eli Manning – 14.6

14. Joe Flacco – 13.9

15. Mark Sanchez – 13.2

16. Andy Dalton – 12.5
————————————–Average QBV – 10.0 (John Skelton 10.0)
17. Philip Rivers – 9.7

18. Ryan Fitzpatrick – 9.6

19. Kevin Kolb – 8.3

20. Colt McCoy – 8.2

21. Matt Cassel – 7.9

22. Tarvaris Jackson – 7.7

23. Michael Vick – 7.4

24. Matt Moore – 7.4

25. Cam Newton – 7.0

26. Blaine Gabbert – 7.0

27. Carson Palmer – 6.7 (Jason Campbell 16.7)

28. Christian Ponder – 6.3

29. Josh Freeman – 5.5

30. Rex Grossman – 5.5

31. Sam Bradford – 3.3

32. Curtis Painter – 2.4 (Orlovsky 6.0)

Tiebreakers
1. Number of starts this year. As is the case with any statistic, the greater the sample size, the more accurate the data.
2. Total turnovers (interceptions + fumbles lost)

Perhaps we all need to better prioritize how we evaluate NFL quarterbacks. Please allow our new QBV statistic to serve as the first step in this process.

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About Marc Ryan

Having admired Kristi's and Alicia's work from afar for quite some time, it truly is a privilege to be able to contribute on a site that's the only one of its kind. I host a morning drive sports radio program, "The Morning Wrap," for 100.3 FM and "The Ticket Sports Network" in the Florida Panhandle. The show airs daily from 6am until 9am central time. You may stream the show live at www.theticketsportsnetwork.com . I've been in the panhandle since mid-2009, and experienced my first national hosting experience here, as a fill-in on Sporting News Radio, now Yahoo Sports Radio. Prior to this, I was host of "Marc Ryan's Sports Section," in Orlando, where I was fortunate enough to have been named "Best Sports Host" by Orlando Magazine. I'm a graduate of the University of Florida, with a degree in Telecommunications.

Discussion

3 thoughts on “Total Quarterback Value (QBV) through Week 15

  1. Interesting approach I assume includes QB fumbles and not team fumbles. But as critical as a QB is to team success, your formula overvalues wins and losses. A lousy defense contributes to win % as much as offensive performance.Tebow’s 5 rating reflects a low INT number, so that makes him better than Manning and Big Ben?
    And Rodgers TD/INT ratio does not make him twice the player Bress is. But your philosophy does demonstrate a certain disparity in perception vs.results.

    Posted by Jeffery Roy | February 7, 2012, 5:17 pm
    • Jeffrey,

      Thanks for the comment. Remember, when this was posted, Tebow had a smaller sample size of games than he does now. He finished the season either 11th or 13th in QBV for the regular season. I will post the final regular season QBV’s for each starter and NFL Playoffs QBV soon.

      A win counts as much on the positive side as a TD pass – a loss as much as a turnover. You’re right on QB fumbles only – it’s QB fumbles lost.

      At one point, Tebow was 7-1 with a defense that finished #20 in the league out of 32 teams. The goal of the stat is to help paint a picture of the value of intangibles a QB brings. I’ve always felt point guard is the position most responsible for wins and losses in basketball – the same for QB’s in the NFL.

      Remember this – Denver and Carolina were the league’s two worst teams as of last April at the draft. Most would rate Cam Newton ahead of Tebow because of overrated yardage passing stats. QBV has Tebow higher – the two worst teams in the league – one QB led his team to the final 8 – the other? Didn’t get his team in the playoffs? Any why didn’t Cam get his team in the playoffs? A high number of turnovers and a mediocre TD to INT ratio.

      Posted by Marc Ryan | February 7, 2012, 6:16 pm

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